Energy balance, honestly stated
Body weight follows the difference between energy in and energy out. Eat less than you burn and stored energy is drawn down; eat more and it is laid in. Every diet that works — keto, fasting, calorie counting, Mediterranean, carnivore — works by moving one side of that equation, usually by making you eat less without saying so. There is no version of nutrition that escapes the accounting.
What the accounting does not tell you is that both sides are moving targets. “Energy out” falls as you get lighter and falls further because your body quietly reduces spontaneous movement in a deficit. “Energy in” is measured by you, with a phone app, against food labels that carry legal tolerances of ±20%. This is why the equation is true and calorie counting is still hard.
How the target is built
Three steps. First, resting metabolism from Mifflin-St Jeor — the best-validated general equation:
Second, multiply by an activity factor (1.2 sedentary through 1.9 extra active) to get maintenance calories, your TDEE. Third, apply the goal:
The 7,700 kcal per kilogram (3,500 per pound) figure is where the honesty needs to start.
Why 3,500 kcal per pound is only approximately true
The number comes from a 1958 estimate: adipose tissue is roughly 87% fat by weight, fat yields about 9 kcal/g, so a pound of adipose is about 3,500 kcal. That arithmetic is fine. The problem is treating it as a conversion rate for body weight, which it is not:
- Weight lost is never pure fat. Early loss is heavily glycogen and its bound water — which is why week one often shows 2 kg and week four shows 0.3 kg on the identical deficit.
- The leaner you get, the more of each kilogram lost comes from lean tissue, which is far less energy-dense than fat. The effective “kcal per kg” falls.
- The rule assumes your burn stays put. It does not — which is the whole reason the projection chart above bends instead of running straight.
Used as a rough planning constant over months, 7,700 kcal/kg is serviceable. Used to explain a single week, it will mislead you every time.
Rates that hold up
| Goal | Rate | Daily change | Realistic for |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative cut | −0.25 kg / −0.5 lb per wk | −275 kcal | Already lean; protecting muscle and performance |
| Standard cut | −0.5 kg / −1 lb per wk | −550 kcal | Most people, most of the time |
| Aggressive cut | −1 kg / −2 lb per wk | −1,100 kcal | Higher starting body fat, short blocks only |
| Lean gain | +0.25 kg / +0.5 lb per wk | +275 kcal | Trained lifters adding mass slowly |
| Faster gain | +0.5 kg / +1 lb per wk | +550 kcal | Beginners and returning lifters |
A useful ceiling for fat loss is about 1% of body weight per week — 0.8 kg for an 80 kg person. Below that you keep most of your muscle; above it, the share of loss coming from lean tissue climbs steeply. The other constraint is the calculator's warning: if your target falls below 1,500 kcal (men) or 1,200 kcal (women), you have picked a rate your body size cannot support.
Zigzag and refeeds
Calorie cycling — eating below target on some days and at or above it on others, for the same weekly total — is a scheduling tool, not a metabolic trick. The weekly average is what drives weight change. What cycling buys is compliance: bigger meals on training days, room for a social dinner, and a psychological reset that keeps a 16-week diet from feeling like 16 identical weeks.
| Day | Flat 1,900 kcal | Zigzag, same weekly total |
|---|---|---|
| Mon (train) | 1,900 | 2,150 |
| Tue | 1,900 | 1,700 |
| Wed (train) | 1,900 | 2,150 |
| Thu | 1,900 | 1,700 |
| Fri (train) | 1,900 | 2,150 |
| Sat (social) | 1,900 | 2,300 |
| Sun | 1,900 | 1,150 |
| Weekly total | 13,300 | 13,300 |
A diet break is the bigger version: one to two weeks at maintenance every couple of months. Trials comparing intermittent and continuous dieting find similar or better fat loss with breaks, largely because adherence holds up. It does not “reset your metabolism” — it resets you.
Plateaus
A genuine plateau is four weeks of flat weekly averages. Anything shorter is noise: sodium, glycogen, menstrual cycle phase, and gut contents move scale weight by a kilogram or more in either direction. When a real plateau arrives, work the list in order:
- Recalculate. You are lighter than when you started, so your maintenance is lower. Re-run this calculator and the TDEE calculator at your current weight.
- Re-audit logging. Portion drift is the single most common cause. Weigh everything for one week — cooking oils, sauces, drinks included.
- Add movement, not deficit. An extra 3,000 steps a day is worth 100–150 kcal without touching your food, and it does not compound the fatigue.
- Take a break. Two weeks at maintenance, then resume. Slower on paper, faster in practice.
Then set the macros: the macro calculator turns whatever target you settle on into protein, carbohydrate and fat grams, and the protein calculator handles the one macro that matters most in a deficit.